Our recent survey finds incumbent Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves in a vulnerable position ahead of his November 2023 bid for re-election.

The poll which was conducted on behalf of the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund and the New Southern Majority PAC finds an electorate that is dissatisfied with the direction of the state and frustrated with the Governor’s tenure in office, specifically accentuated by his ties to the recent corruption scandal involving the misuse of Mississippi state welfare funds. Consequently, the Governor’s prospects for reelection look tenuous, with his likely Democratic challenger Brandon Presley currently leading Reeves in a head-to-head contest.

According to the statewide poll we conducted amongst likely 2023 voters, pessimism about Mississippi’s direction has impacted Reeves’ standing, with the Governor’s favorable ratings now underwater by double digits. A majority of voters (54%) holds an “unfavorable” opinion of Reeves  and the intensity behind Reeves’ detractors far outweighs that of his supporters, with 40% of voters saying they have a “very unfavorable” view of the Governor compared to just 16% who have a “very favorable” view of him.

As a result, Reeves appears vulnerable ahead of the November 2023 general election, with the survey showing him trailing his potential Democratic opponent, Public Service Commissioner and former Nettleton Mayor Brandon Presley in a head-to-head matchup. In the poll, Presley attracts the support of 47% of likely voters compared to 43% for Reeves while 1-in-10 voters are undecided.

Reeves’ political prospects are further hurt by the recent highly publicized TANF scandal involving the misuse of Mississippi state welfare funds. Notably, this scandal has grabbed the public’s attention as more than 9 out of 10 voters (92%) say they have seen or heard something about it recently, including more than half (55%) who say they have heard a lot about it.

The broad awareness of this scandal has inflicted real harm on the Governor’s standing with voters. In the poll, after asking whether they had heard of this scandal, voters were given a short additional description about its details including the Governor’s decision to fire an attorney who was charged with investigating the matter. Following this short description, nearly two-thirds of voters (64%) said what they heard made them feel unfavorable about Reeves, including nearly half (46%) who said it made them feel very unfavorable about him.

Ahead of the November 2023 general election, incumbent Governor Tate Reeves faces strong political headwinds as voters are dissatisfied with the current trajectory of the state and have soured in their views of the Governor and his job managing the state. In particular, voters are very disappointed with the Governor’s involvement in the state’s welfare funding scandal. As a result, there is a legitimate opportunity for a candidate like Brandon Presley to give a serious challenge to Reeves as our polling shows Presley currently leading the incumbent in a general election matchup.

These results have been picked up by local, state and national news sources. Additionally, Ben Tulchin, President, discussed the findings on Mississippi Public Broadcasting on Feb. 17. Listen in here (skip to minute 13:30).

• Democrat Brandon Presley—Cousin Of Elvis—Close To Mississippi’s Republican Governor In Recent Polls (Forbes)
• Poll: Reeves trails Presley in 2023 governor’s race, welfare scandal a top issue (Mississippi Today WJTV)
• Republicans’ Worst Fears About Mississippi May Be Coming True (Newsweek)
• Second poll shows tight race between Tate Reeves and Brandon Presley for MS governor (Clarion Ledger)
• Poll: Reeves trails Presley in 2023 governor’s race, welfare scandal a top issue (Daily Journal)