Bernie Sanders is riding a wave of momentum heading into November’s Democratic presidential primary debate in Atlanta. Bolstered by his unprecedented grassroots fundraising, aggressive ground game in key early states, and a series of recent high-profile endorsements, Sanders has made significant gains in polling over the past month and strengthened his position as a frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
Sanders, who is leading the Democratic presidential field in fundraising and cash-on-hand, announced today that he has received over 4 million individual donations – a milestone not reached by his 2016 campaign until after he won the New Hampshire primary. Last week, the Sanders campaign announced that supporters have made more than 7.75 million phone calls and sent over 63 million text messages. Since this time last month, Sanders has also claimed the endorsements of popular progressive leaders like U.S. Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tlaib and of major labor unions and membership organizations. In recent days, Sanders has been endorsed by National Nurses United, the country’s largest nurses’ union; United Teachers Los Angeles, the second largest teachers’ union local in the country; and the California Young Democrats, winning the endorsement with over two-thirds support in this key early state.
Here is a summary of recent polling data capturing the Bernie Surge:
- Sanders has made gains in national polling over the past month and just hit a 6-month high while Biden and Warren have both lost ground in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics (RCP) Polling Average of national Democratic primary polls finds Sanders has gained nearly 5 points (+4.5) over the past month and he just reached his highest level of polling in this benchmark since May. While Sanders has increased his support nationally in recent weeks, the other two leading candidates have seen their support drop over the past month, with Warren down 6 points from her peak and Biden down 3 points from a few weeks ago and down 14 points from his peak.
- Three national polls released over the past week find Bernie Sanders in second place nationally. Every public poll conducted since November 11th finds Sanders running second to Joe Biden nationally and ahead of Elizabeth Warren, who is in third. This includes polls by The Hill/HarrisX (Biden 30%-Sanders 18%-Warren 15%), Politico/Morning Consult (Biden 32%-Sanders 20%-Warren 17%), and Reuters/Ipsos (Biden 23%-Sanders 18%-Warren 11%). When former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is included in the primary vote question, Reuters/Ipsos finds Sanders tied with Biden nationally (19% to 19%).
- Sanders “stands on rock-solid base” of support. Polling consistently finds that Sanders supporters are the most certain of and most enthusiastic about their choice of presidential candidate, strengthening his position in close contests and in caucus states like Iowa and Nevada. The most recent Des Moines Register-Selzer & Co. poll in Iowa finds that Sanders supporters are the least likely among frontrunners’ supporters to switch their allegiance, with 57% of those backing Sanders indicating that their mind is made up while none of the other top candidates cracks 30% in that metric. Similarly, a recent Quinnipiac University poll of New Hampshire finds that 57% of Sanders voters say they will “definitely” vote for him, compared to 43% of Biden voters who will definitely support him, and just 29% “definitely” support for Warren.
- Sanders is the most popular candidate in the race and has the strongest favorability ratings among the Democratic field. The Politico/Morning Consult poll currently finds Sanders viewed favorably by 75% of Democratic primary voters and has a net favorability rating of +57, better than Joe Biden (72% favorable, +52 net favorable) or Elizabeth Warren (65% favorable, +48 net favorable).
- Sanders leads with Latinx voters nationally and in the key early primary state of California. The most recent poll by The Hill/HarrisX finds Sanders currently leads the Democratic field nationally among Latinx voters (Sanders 27%-Biden 22%-Warren 12%). Additionally, a recent poll conducted by The Latino Community Foundation finds Sanders with a strong lead among Latinx voters in the early battleground state of California, attracting 31% of Latinx voters to 22% for Biden, 11% for Warren, 9% for Julián Castro, and 8% for Kamala Harris.
- Polling finds Sanders in a four-way tie for first in Iowa and a three-way tie for first in New Hampshire. Polling finds extremely close, competitive races in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, with Sanders vying for first place in both states. A new CBS News/YouGov poll finds Sanders tied for first in Iowa (Sanders 22%-Biden 22%-Buttigieg 21%-Warren 18%) and the most recent RCP Average of Iowa polls similarly finds a four-way statistical tie. In New Hampshire, a recent CNN/University of New Hampshire poll finds Sanders leading the pack (Sanders 21%-Warren 18%-Biden 15%) while the most up-to-date RCP Average of New Hampshire polls finds the race in a three-way statistical tie between Sanders, Warren and Biden.
Given all of these recent positive developments for Sanders – his strong fundraising, recent endorsements, and the surge in national polling – Sanders heads into November’s debate as the only candidate among the top three with real momentum.
For the full polling memo, click here.