New California Statewide Poll Finds Democratic Ticket in Good Shape.

California Poised to be a Democratic Firewall for rest of country as Brown, Boxer and Newsom Lead.

The State, Especially Northern California, Is Rallying Behind the San Francisco Giants and Giants Fans Strongly Favor Democratic Candidates.

Texas is not Popular – Few Californians Support the Rangers and Proposition 23, Backed by Texas Oil Companies, Is Losing.

A recent California statewide survey found that Californians are rallying behind the San Francisco Giants in baseball’s World Series, and that this may be having an impact on some key statewide races on the ballot November 2.

Notably, Californians are cheering for the Giants over the Rangers by a wide margin (53% are for the Giants to only 15% for the Rangers).

There is a major split by geography, as Northern California (the Bay Area, Sacramento and North, and the Central Valley) are pulling for the Giants by a 72% to 6% margin.  In contrast, Southern California is more closely matched, as 37% favor the Giants to 23% for the Rangers.

Giants fans strongly prefer the Democratic candidates for governor, U.S. Senate, and lieutenant governor:

• Governor:  Giants fans much prefer Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman (56% to 32%);
• U.S.Senate: Giants fans support Barbara Boxer over Carly Fiorina by 59% to 33% margin;
• Lieutenant Governor:  Giants fans support San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom over Abel Maldonado by a 52% to 24% margin
• Prop. 23 (the measure to overturn California’s greenhouse gas emissions law):  Once again, Giants fans take the more progressive position and oppose the pro-Texas position, strongly opposing Prop. 23 by a margin of 30% yes to 54% no.

Conversely, Rangers fans support the Republican candidates:

• Governor:  Rangers fans back Whitman over Brown by a 51% to 29% margin;
• U.S. Senate:  Rangers supporters line up behind Fiorina by a similar margin (57% to 32%);
• Lieutenant Governor:  Rangers supporters back Maldonado but by a smaller margin (36% for Maldonado to 31% for Newsom).
• Prop 23:  Rangers fans side with Texas oil companies and support Proposition 23 by a margin of 52% yes to 30% no.

In other findings in the survey:

• In the governor’s race, Jerry Brown leads Meg Whitman by 8 points (45% to 37%).
• In the U.S. Senate race, Barbara Boxer holds an identical 8-point lead over Carly Fiorina (48% to 40%).
• In the Lieutenant Governor race, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has an even larger lead over his Republican opponent as Newsom currently beats the incumbent Lieutenant Governor 42% to 27%.
• Prop 19, the measure to legalize marijuana, is trailing – 53% no to 36% yes.
• Prop 23 is also poised to go down to defeat as 45% of voters currently are voting no on the measure to 34% who are voting yes.
• Prop 25 (the measure to reduce the vote threshold to pass the state budget from 2/3 to 50%) is ahead but is below 50% as it draws 46% of the vote to 35% no.
• Prop 26 (require a 2/3 vote to pass certain fees) is ahead slightly, 42% yes to 34% no.

View our summary memo of the World Series questions here.

View our summary memo of the races for Governor, U.S. Senate, and Lieutenant Governor here.

View our summary memo of the statewide ballot measures here.

Survey Methodology: From October 25 – October 27, 2010, Tulchin Research conducted a telephone survey among 700 likely November 2010 general election voters in California. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

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